November 6, 2025 – Nvidia closed at $4.02 tn market cap today, surpassing Apple and becoming the world’s most valuable company as hyperscalers commit $250 bn to AI capex in 2026.
The $4 Trillion Trigger
Q3 Results (reported after close)
- Revenue $35.1 bn (+94% YoY)
- Data Center $30.8 bn (+112%)
- Gross margin 75.1%
- EPS $0.81 (beat by $0.07)
2026 Guidance
- Q4 revenue $43 bn (street $41 bn)
- FY2026 revenue $210 bn implied (+67% YoY)
Hyperscaler Capex Explosion
| Company | 2026 AI Capex | vs 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | $65 bn | +62% |
| Amazon | $100 bn | +33% |
| $75 bn | +50% | |
| Microsoft | $80 bn | +45% |
Total Big-4 AI spend 2026: $320 bn → 80% flows to Nvidia/TSMC/Broadcom.
Supply Chain Winners
| Stock | Gain Today | 2026 Target |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | +4.2% | $180 |
| TSM | +6.8% | $280 |
| AVGO | +5.1% | $320 |
| ASML | +7.3% | €1,200 |
| SMCI | +18% | $180 |
Investment Strategies
Core AI Basket (30% portfolio)
NVDA 40% / AVGO 20% / TSM 20% / AMD 10% / ARM 10%
Rebalance quarterly.
Options Alpha
- NVDA Jan 2027 $200 calls (delta 0.35) – 400% implied move priced
- Sell NVDA weekly puts below $130 for 2.5% monthly yield
Short-Term Trade
Long SMCI $65 → $120 gap fill by December OPEX.
Hedge
10% TLT + gold miners if Fed pauses cuts.
Risks
- China export curbs on advanced chips
- Blackwell yield issues delay H2 ramp
- 40% drawdown every 18 months (historical)
Bottom line: AI capex inflection just started. $5 tn Nvidia by July 2026 is consensus. Buy every dip.